Description and Example for the Outlive Probability calculator
Tuesday, 08 September 2009 19:42
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Description and Example for the Outlive Probability calculator
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Suppose you are married or you live together. Your spouse and you have different ages and the question is who will die first and for how many years the other will be alone. Nobody can predict this but we can compute the probability of dying first and we can also compute the average number of years of the one staying behind.

This is exactly what the Outlive Probability Calculator does. Moreover this calculator can compute these figures for a number of cases through the input period measured in years. The calculator then computes the chances and life expectancies both for dying within this period and for dying after this period.

The Outlive Probability Calculator is based on the simulation of the lifes of many couples. For each simulated couple the calculator generates random numbers. Based on these numbers and country dependent statistics it determines when the two individuals will die. The calculator then collects and processes the simulated mortality data of all couples into chances and life expectancies. The more couples are simulated the better the results but also the longer the computation takes. A good number of couples is 100000 but simulations of between 1000 and 10000 couples often produce reasonable results compared to other mathematical models.

The calculator assumes that the life of the each person are independent from the life of the other. This is often not true, for instance people living together influence each others life style and health and they are more likely to die in the same accident or from the same disease. Despite violation of this assumption the computation often give a good impression of the probabilities and remaining life expectancies in real life.